Author name: 胡思

The Futility of Market Timing in Investing

Almost every investor believes they are not part of the ‘majority’. They think that with a bit more accurate judgment and quicker reactions, they can buy low and sell high, avoiding risks while amplifying returns. The allure of market timing lies in this promise: to profit without enduring volatility. However, reality repeatedly shows that most investors tend to buy at high prices and sell at low ones, straying from the ideal path.

This is not merely a psychological error, but a fundamental logic of market operations. The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that at any given moment, prices reflect all available information. News, data, policy expectations, pessimism, and optimism are all absorbed by countless market participants and reflected in prices. The ‘important information’ you think you’ve just discovered has likely already been digested by the market.

As a result, markets often behave contrary to human intuition. When prices fall, bad news seems particularly abundant; when prices rise, good stories appear especially plausible. Turning points are often not due to sudden reversals in information, but because prices have already anticipated and exhausted expectations. By the time sentiment truly reacts, the optimal moment has long passed.

Behavioral finance further explains why investors act at the wrong times. The pain of loss is significantly greater than the pleasure of gain. A small drop prompts a desire to cut losses, while a rise incites a fear of missing out, leading to chasing prices. Even in a generally efficient market, human irrationality is sufficient to cause investors to repeatedly make the same mistakes.

More cruelly, long-term returns are highly concentrated in a very small number of trading days, which often follow the most panicked and volatile moments in the market. If you attempt to time the market or temporarily exit, you risk missing those critical days that cannot be reclaimed. The Efficient Market Hypothesis does not require you to believe that the market is always correct; it merely reminds you that the cost of avoiding volatility is often higher than enduring it.

Some still believe that with better technology and more accurate judgment, they can successfully time the market. However, if prices already reflect information, this means you must consistently act ahead of the smartest, fastest, and most resourceful individuals in the market. This is not an investment strategy; it is a misjudgment of probabilities.

What is truly costly is not just a single misjudgment, but the repeated transaction costs, tax friction, and emotional toll incurred from attempts at market timing. Market timing may seem proactive, but it effectively hands decision-making power over to fear and greed; long-term investing, which appears passive, is actually a calm acknowledgment of market efficiency.

Therefore, the conclusion must be stated more clearly: timing the market is futile. Not because you are not trying hard enough, but because prices already incorporate all the information you wish to exploit. Since no one can consistently identify the ‘optimal moment’, for long-term investors, this so-called optimal moment has only one answer—it’s always ‘now’.

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The Bayeux Tapestry Returns to Britain: When and Where to See It?

A piece of embroidery nearly 70 meters long and about half a meter wide carries the weight of a pivotal moment in English history. The Bayeux Tapestry is not a tapestry in the traditional sense; rather, it is a narrative embroidery stitched with woolen thread onto linen, completed in the late 11th century. It depicts the events surrounding the Norman Conquest from 1064 to 1066: Harold’s oath, William’s gathering of forces, and the decisive Battle of Hastings. The continuous imagery, accompanied by Latin inscriptions, serves almost as a medieval documentary.

Scholars generally believe that the tapestry was likely created in England and then sent to France, with funding possibly coming from Odo, Bishop of Bayeux, who was William’s half-brother. Its significance lies not in the absolute accuracy of every detail but in how it weaves together themes of legitimacy, religious symbolism, and the narrative of war into a cohesive story. For this reason, the Bayeux Tapestry is not only an artistic treasure but also a political text, remaining an indispensable source for the study of the Norman dynasty.

This national treasure, long housed in Normandy, France, is finally set to return to the UK in a special exhibition. The exhibition will take place at the British Museum in London, running from September 2026 to July 2027. The display will be segmented, adhering to stringent requirements for temperature, humidity, and low light to ensure that this nearly thousand-year-old artifact does not suffer structural damage during the exhibition. Visitors will not only be able to appreciate the overall narrative but also observe the embroidery’s lines, compositional arrangements, and traces left by historical repairs up close.

For many in Hong Kong and the UK, the Bayeux Tapestry is not entirely unfamiliar. It is one of the popular topics frequently featured in the Life in the UK Test, assessing candidates’ understanding of the decisive impact of the Norman Conquest on British history. The names and images that are usually encountered only in revision notes and mock exams will now materialize before them, evoking a sense of ‘seeing the real thing’ and bringing this historical episode from abstract knowledge back to tangible reality.

A practical tip for those planning to visit: become a member of the British Museum. Members can enter ticketed special exhibitions for free and without prior booking, which is a significant advantage for highly sought-after exhibitions. Additionally, members enjoy exclusive time slots with fewer crowds, making for a more relaxed viewing experience compared to public hours.

Moreover, the UK Treasury will provide a government guarantee of £800 million for this loan. This is not a generous arrangement but a practical necessity. Such a significant artifact would be nearly impossible to insure fully against all risks in the commercial market; any incident during transportation or exhibition could lead to liabilities that would nullify any insurance arrangement. The government guarantee serves as a final safeguard for the lending country, ensuring that cultural exchange does not stall due to financial realities.

The return of the Bayeux Tapestry is not merely an exhibition; it is an opportunity to re-understand the origins of Britain. History is not only inscribed in decrees and royal names but also woven into the fabric and threads. Standing before this long scroll, viewers see not just a war that has long ended but how power has been narrated, preserved, and passed down to the present day.

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Ninety Percent of Fund Managers Underperform Indices

Financial markets excel at generating hope. Every day, fund managers discuss stock selection and strategies with great confidence, suggesting that diligent analysis can help them avoid risks and outperform the market. However, when the time frame is extended to ten or twenty years, the conclusion becomes stark and singular: over ninety percent of fund managers underperform their benchmarks in the long run.

This is not merely a feeling; it is statistical fact. According to the SPIVA report published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, in the U.S. large-cap market, more than 90% of active funds underperformed the S&P 500 index over a 20-year period; even over a 10-year period, the underperformance rate remains close to 85%. Time is not a friend to active funds; rather, it is their adversary. The longer the time horizon, the fewer winners remain.

This phenomenon is not unique to the United States. SPIVA’s European data reveals that approximately 80% of UK equity funds underperformed their benchmark over a 10-year period; in mature markets like the Eurozone and Japan, the long-term underperformance rate generally ranges from 70% to 90%. Even in emerging markets, which are often considered ‘less efficient,’ more than half of active funds still lag behind their indices over a 10-year period. While markets may not be perfect, they are sufficient to pull most investors below the average.

Some may argue that the issue lies not with active management itself but with selecting the wrong funds. However, research from Morningstar indicates that this argument also lacks merit. Statistics show that the likelihood of a fund that was once in the top 25% remaining there five years later is typically below 20%. Good performance is difficult to sustain, while poor performance tends to be remarkably stable. Choices that seem reasonable in hindsight are nearly impossible to identify in advance.

An even harsher statistic is the ‘survivorship rate.’ Long-term tracking by Morningstar shows that after 15 years, only about half of active funds still exist; the rest have either been liquidated, merged, or quietly disappeared. Investors face not only the risk of underperforming indices but also the risk that the funds they select may not survive long enough to deliver long-term returns.

Costs represent the final blow. Active funds typically charge management fees of 1% to 2% annually, coupled with hidden costs from frequent trading, which can erode most returns due to compounding effects. The overall market return is fixed; before costs are deducted, all investors combined equal the market; after costs, active investors are bound to lose. This is not a question of ability but of arithmetic.

It is for this reason that John Bogle proposed a counterintuitive choice: do not attempt to beat the market; instead, own the market directly. Low-cost, broadly diversified, long-term investments in index funds, without predictions or frequent trading, allow time to make the decisions.

The conclusion is, in fact, quite calm. For the average investor, investing is not about proving oneself smarter than fund managers, but rather about avoiding the statistically marked disadvantage. When 90% of professionals cannot consistently outperform indices over the long term, the most rational choice is to refrain from participating in a competition that is destined to yield negative expectations.

Passive index investing is not laziness; it is a clear-eyed recognition of the numbers. The market does not entertain excuses; it merely tallies results.

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Rolls-Royce: The Core of British Industry Beyond Luxury Cars

For many in Hong Kong, Rolls-Royce is synonymous with luxury automobiles; those with some knowledge of the aviation sector might recognize that the company also manufactures aircraft engines. However, it is only recently that many have discovered that the Rolls-Royce cars seen on the streets are no longer connected to the British Rolls-Royce. The true representative of British industrial strength is Rolls-Royce Holdings, a company that does not produce cars but is deeply involved in global aviation, energy, and nuclear industries.

This distinction itself highlights the issue. Rolls-Royce’s automotive division was sold off in 1998, and today’s Rolls-Royce Motor Cars belongs to the German BMW Group. The British Rolls-Royce has always focused on one thing: high-end engineering. It does not rely on sales volume for survival but thrives on reliability, longevity, and technological barriers.

While aviation engines remain the largest source of revenue, the business model has transformed. Today, engine sales are merely the beginning; the real profits come from service contracts that last for two to three decades. Through real-time data feedback and predictive maintenance, each engine operating in the air becomes a continuously generating asset. This ‘pay-per-flight-hour’ model stabilizes company revenue and makes it more challenging for airlines to switch suppliers.

Beyond aviation, Rolls-Royce plays a crucial role in the energy sector. Its large diesel and gas turbine systems are widely used in data centers, hospitals, ports, and critical infrastructure. In an era where AI and cloud computing are driving electricity demand, these systems are no longer just backup solutions but integral to energy security. Looking further ahead, small modular reactors (SMRs) hold strategic significance—not merely as demonstrations but as standardized, mass-produced, and exportable solutions.

To understand this company, one must look beyond business classifications and consider geographical divisions of labor. Derby serves as the heart of the group, overseeing engine design, assembly, testing, and global maintenance and data monitoring systems. Bristol is a hub for aviation research and development, responsible for core modules of turbofan engines, combustion systems, and future propulsion technologies, serving as the birthplace of the next generation of engines. Sheffield focuses on the most ‘hardcore’ aspects: advanced manufacturing and materials engineering, including nuclear-grade steel, powder metallurgy, and high-precision forging, which support both aviation and nuclear projects. The SMR initiative spans multiple sites across central and northern England, emphasizing the breakdown of nuclear power plants into systems that can be industrially produced.

Overseas, each location serves its purpose. Singapore is the maintenance and service hub for the Asia-Pacific region, while the United States and Germany handle energy and power systems, and Canada participates in nuclear engineering and energy technologies. Regardless of how far the supply chain extends, the critical design rights, system integration, and safety certifications remain firmly in the UK.

From the numbers, this is not a niche enterprise. In a complete fiscal year, the group’s revenue was approximately £17 billion, and it has returned to stable profitability; it employs over 40,000 people globally, many of whom are engineers and highly skilled technicians. These positions are not short-term contracts but require years of training and accumulated industrial capabilities.

What is most noteworthy about Rolls-Royce is not its brand but what it reveals about a reality: the UK has not lost its manufacturing base; it has merely exited low-end competition, concentrating resources on the most difficult industrial sectors to replicate globally. While cars are no longer its face, aircraft engines, energy systems, and nuclear engineering are the true foundations that allow the UK to remain at the forefront of the world.

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The Realities and Challenges of Venezuelan Oil

Donald Trump envisioned a military operation to seize Caracas, capture Nicolás Maduro, and declare that the United States would take control of Venezuela. In his narrative, the logic was simple and direct: the world’s largest oil reserves would fall into American hands, granting energy security, geopolitical advantages, and even influence over oil prices. While this rhetoric is appealing and politically mobilizing, it mistakenly treats oil as a treasure chest rather than a complex industrial system that requires long-term operation and cannot simply be turned on and off.

Indeed, Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, but ‘largest’ does not equate to ‘cheapest’ or ‘easiest to profit from.’ Its oil resources are highly concentrated in the Orinoco heavy oil belt, characterized by extra-heavy, high-sulfur, and high-viscosity crude. Transforming this oil from underground into a marketable product necessitates a significant amount of diluents, expensive upgrading facilities, and a stable power, maintenance, and logistics infrastructure. All these conditions are indispensable, yet they have been eroded or entirely collapsed in Venezuela over the past decade. While the reserves are real, their availability and economic viability have been severely constrained from the outset.

Even setting aside technical and cost considerations, safety and order alone are sufficient to deter investment. During the transitional period of external intervention and power restructuring, the most vulnerable aspect is often not the central government but the energy infrastructure. Pipelines, pumping stations, storage tanks, substations, and upgrading plants are all targets for guerrilla warfare and armed sabotage. Such attacks do not need to completely paralyze the industry; their mere recurrence can create long-term uncertainty, driving up insurance, security, and financing costs, rendering any long-term investment return calculations meaningless. For the energy sector, the most challenging aspect is not a single incident but the perpetual unpredictability of interruptions.

Time is also not on Venezuela’s side. Restoring production to a scale that allows for sustainable exports is generally viewed as a multi-year endeavor requiring hundreds of billions of dollars in continuous investment. However, the demand side is undergoing structural changes. Approximately half of global oil demand comes from land transportation, which is facing the most direct and rapid alternatives. Advances in battery technology regarding energy density, lifespan, and cost are accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles.

Simultaneously, the transformation of the power generation sector is altering the entire energy landscape. Solar and wind energy are expanding rapidly worldwide, with new generation capacity hitting record highs each year; nuclear energy is experiencing a revival in several major economies, with both new nuclear power plants and small modular reactors providing stable, low-carbon baseload power to the electricity system. The cheaper and cleaner electricity becomes, the faster electrification occurs, and the smaller the space for fossil fuels in end-demand. These overlapping trends are systematically compressing the long-term growth potential of oil.

Currently, Brent crude oil prices hover around $60 per barrel. This price level is acceptable for low-cost, low-risk oil-producing countries; however, for Venezuela’s heavy oil, which requires massive restoration investments and faces political and security risks, there is virtually no buffer. Even in a more optimistic and politically stable scenario, the breakeven oil price for Venezuelan oil is estimated to be around $40–60 per barrel; however, should the risk premium rise, it could escalate to $60–80 per barrel or even higher. Comparing this range to current oil prices reveals that profit margins are quite limited, clearly disproportionate to the risks involved.

Thus, viewing Venezuelan oil as an energy shortcut fundamentally misjudges long-term, structural industrial and market issues as short-term geopolitical victories. Oil is ultimately not acquired through occupation but through stable order, substantial capital, and prolonged time. And time is increasingly favoring batteries, electric vehicles, wind, solar, and nuclear energy, rather than the high-cost, heavy-oil-dependent Venezuela.

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The Evolution of Hongkongers’ Right of Abode in the UK

The term “the empire on which the sun never sets” is not merely rhetorical; it is a historical fact. At its peak in the early 20th century, the British Empire governed approximately 24% of the world’s land area and accounted for about 23% of the global population, making it the largest empire in human history. The operation of the empire was quite straightforward: it integrated people scattered across the globe into a single political system through a set of legal identities. The history of British identity for Hongkongers is a microcosm of how the colonial power gradually withdrew its responsibilities as the empire receded.

Before the emergence of modern nationality systems, there was no concept of “nationality” as we understand it today within the empire. From the 19th century to the early 20th century, the basic legal status was that of a British subject, centered on loyalty to the Crown rather than residence or immigration rights. The post-war British Nationality Act of 1948 institutionalized this imperial subject relationship, creating Citizens of the United Kingdom and Colonies (CUKC). Within this framework, Hongkongers and British residents were nominally part of the same nationality; at least at the outset, there was no deliberate distinction between the rights of “home” and “colonial” subjects.

The real turning point occurred in the 1960s. With an increase in immigration from colonies and the Commonwealth, domestic political pressure in the UK surged. The government did not outright deny imperial nationality but chose to gradually sever the link between “nationality” and “right of abode” through immigration law. The Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962 was the first to impose work and entry restrictions on Commonwealth and colonial citizens; the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1968 further established birth or blood ties to the UK as substantive thresholds; finally, the Immigration Act of 1971 formally introduced the concept of right of abode, restricting it to a very small number of individuals with “close ties to the UK.”

These three pieces of legislation collectively achieved a critical severance. While the identity of CUKC still existed, it no longer came with the right to settle in the UK for the majority of colonial residents. Hongkongers did not suddenly lose their right of abode on a specific day; rather, they were gradually excluded at three key junctures: 1962, 1968, and 1971.

The British Nationality Act of 1981 provided a systematic summary of this reality. It was not a repair but a rewrite, formally ending CUKC and establishing a tiered nationality structure, the core principle of which was to concentrate the right of abode within the narrowest category of British citizens. The six types of British nationality recognized under British law thereafter were gradually organized and supplemented within this framework, including the later-established British National (Overseas) (BN(O)) specifically for Hongkongers.

Under this system, the most complete identity is that of a British citizen, which generally comes with the right of abode. The other five types are historical remnants or transitional identities, including British Overseas Territories Citizen (BOTC), British Overseas Citizen (BOC), British subject, British National (Overseas) (BN(O)), and British protected person. All six belong to the British nationality system, but there are significant differences in rights; most of the latter do not automatically confer the right of abode.

The British Nationality Act of 1981 established British Dependent Territories Citizen (BDTC) as a new status for colonial residents. Subsequently, BDTC was renamed British Overseas Territories Citizen (BOTC) in line with the political and legal terminology adjustment as colonies were referred to as “overseas territories.” Today, BOTC primarily consists of residents from overseas territories still under British sovereignty, such as Gibraltar, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, and the British Virgin Islands. After 2002, the UK allowed most BOTCs to also become British citizens, so many overseas territory residents today effectively hold the right of abode.

British Overseas Citizen (BOC) represents a “residual status” in the decolonization process. These individuals were often originally CUKC but, after 1981, neither belonged to the UK nor any overseas territory, such as certain East African Asian communities. Legally, they still hold British nationality, but in practice, they have no place to settle. As for British subject and British protected person, only a very small number remain today, mostly remnants of early imperial arrangements, with almost no new additions, resembling historical traces that have not been fully cleared from the legal framework.

The transition of Hongkongers’ identity falls precisely within this tiered system. After 1981, Hong Kong residents automatically became BDTC from their original CUKC status. With the arrangements for the transfer of sovereignty confirmed, the UK established a specific export applicable only to Hong Kong: BN(O), or British National (Overseas). Through registration, eligible Hong Kong BDTCs could obtain BN(O) status. The two could coexist before 1997; however, with the transfer of sovereignty, the BDTC status linked to Hong Kong was terminated in 1997, while those who had registered retained their BN(O) status. Some individuals who might have become stateless were converted to BOC to avoid a legal vacuum.

Beyond this main narrative, the UK also made a one-time limited exception. The British Nationality (Hong Kong) Act of 1990 established a so-called right of abode scheme, capped at 50,000 individuals, including their spouses and minor children, affecting approximately 220,000 people in total. This was not a universal arrangement but a highly selective political solution. The selected individuals primarily came from the government, disciplined forces, professional sectors, and those deemed to hold “key positions,” aimed at stabilizing the administrative and economic systems before 1997. In these families, the first generation directly obtained British citizenship, and their spouses and minor children could register together; subsequent generations born later depended on whether their parents’ status could be inherited; otherwise, they would still need to follow normal residency, settlement, and naturalization procedures.

For the vast majority of Hongkongers, the real turning point came in 2021. The introduction of the BN(O) visa clarified the system for the first time: BN(O) is no longer merely “passport holders without residency rights” but a pathway to gradually obtain permanent residency and British citizenship through a period of residence and compliance with the law. This is not a return of old imperial rights but a clear, accumulative, and achievable transition pathway under a modern immigration system.

When viewed together, the logic is remarkably consistent. The UK first incorporated people through imperial nationality, then gradually withdrew the right of abode through immigration law; by the British Nationality Act of 1981, the tiered outcome was solidified; for Hong Kong, it transitioned first through BDTC and then BN(O), with the right of abode scheme serving as an exception only in very limited circumstances; it was not until 2021 that the BN(O) visa provided a systematic pathway for a portion of individuals to regain residency rights and citizenship. This is not an emotional story but a calm and clear institutional history.

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Is Tea Drinking a Culture or a Bad Habit?

Sitting down for dim sum and rinsing bowls before ordering is almost a reflex for Hongkongers. However, the question is straightforward: Are the utensils served to customers clean before they arrive at the table? If the answer requires customers to intervene, is this a cultural practice or a concession to basic standards?

From a scientific perspective, the hot water in tea houses typically reaches only 60 to 70 degrees Celsius, far below the temperature required for effective disinfection. At best, it removes surface stains but has little effect on bacteria. The action provides psychological comfort rather than genuine hygiene assurance.

The issue lies not on the table but in the kitchen. The safety of utensils is determined by the washing, disinfection, and storage processes, not by the final rinse performed by customers. When the assumption that ‘customers will wash their own utensils’ becomes the norm, restaurants are naturally incentivized to cut corners in their back-end processes: disinfection times can be shortened, and standards can be lowered, because the final sense of security has been outsourced to the diners.

The result is a lowering of overall standards. Ironically, those who insist that ‘clean utensils are the restaurant’s responsibility’ are the ones who suffer the most. Their refusal to rinse is not due to laziness but based on a reasonable premise: they are paying for food and drink, not to act as cleaners. Yet in a system that tacitly assumes customers will self-rescue, this insistence becomes a risk.

In fact, if one discovers that the utensils are unclean, the correct response is not to quietly rinse them but to demand an immediate replacement from the staff, escalate the issue to a manager if necessary, or even file a complaint with health authorities or relevant departments. Only by returning the issue to the institutional level and demanding that restaurants fulfill their responsibilities can standards be corrected. Otherwise, every instance of ‘let it go’ self-remedy only endorses negligence.

Thus, a responsibility that should be borne by professional institutions has quietly shifted to individual choice. This is neither mutual assistance nor virtue, but a misallocation of responsibility. In other cities, utensils must be ready for immediate use upon serving, and customers should not have to intervene; efficiency issues should be resolved through equipment and processes, not by assuming customers will fill the gaps.

When a habit that has little practical effect is taken for granted by the entire industry, it ceases to be a culture and becomes a bad habit.

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The Choice of Stable Population

The initial proposal of the system sparked intense social reactions.

Within three months of the announcement, multiple cities witnessed protests and conflicts. The core demand of the protesters was straightforward: any arrangement requiring citizens to relinquish political rights should not be packaged as a voluntary option. Some demonstrations escalated into riots, leading to multiple parliamentary suspensions and a surge in constitutional court applications for judicial review of the law’s constitutionality.

The government did not retract the proposal.

Six months later, the constitutional amendment was passed. The language of the provisions was brief and neutral, avoiding any value judgments, and merely establishing institutional definitions and boundaries.

The term ‘productive population’ refers to citizens who continue to participate in the labor market, bear economic risks, and fully exercise their political rights.

The term ‘stable population’ refers to citizens who voluntarily exit the labor market, accept basic living guarantees, and voluntarily refrain from participating in political decision-making.

The provisions also clearly stated that individuals could freely switch between the two identities.

Any citizen may voluntarily become a stable population;

Any stable population may also choose to return at any time to become a productive population;

Any choice shall not constitute a penalty or punishment.

The final clause, which sparked the most controversy, stated:

This system is a concrete practice of democratic centralism, ensuring the stability and continuity of political decision-making.

After the constitutional amendment was passed, protests gradually subsided. The reasons were not officially recorded.

In the second year of implementation, Zhao Mingxiu entered the identity transition explanation department.

From the outset, his responsibilities did not include review or discretion. He did not judge who was suitable to become a stable population nor assess who should return. His sole task was to read the terms in full before the identity transition occurred and confirm the other party’s understanding.

Understanding does not equate to agreement.

Therefore, there were no tests, no scores, and no psychological evaluations in the process. Only one fixed question was asked.

‘Do you understand that this is your own choice?’

If the applicant answered ‘yes’, the process would continue.

For seven years, Zhao Mingxiu read the same set of words over ten thousand times.

‘Upon becoming a stable population, you will receive a basic housing unit.’

‘The housing is for use only, not transferable, and does not count as personal assets.’

‘You will receive a fixed living allowance sufficient to cover daily meals, public transport, and basic entertainment.’

‘You will have complete medical coverage without additional premiums.’

‘You will receive an annual allowance for clothing and durable goods updates.’

At this point, most people would nod in agreement.

He would then continue.

‘At the same time, you will no longer be classified as part of the productive population.’

‘You will not participate in elections, be elected, engage in referendums, or any policy consultations.’

‘You may still choose to return at any time to become a productive population.’

Almost every time, someone would pause here.

‘What happens after I return?’ the applicant would ask.

Zhao Mingxiu would switch screens and read another set of terms.

‘Once you return, your identity as a stable population will terminate immediately.’

‘The basic housing usage rights will end within thirty days.’

‘The living allowance will cease.’

‘You will be reintegrated into the labor market and general social security regulations.’

Some would ask more specific questions.

‘Do I have to find a new job?’

‘What if I can’t find one?’

‘How does healthcare work?’

He would answer each question in a neutral tone, without emphasis.

‘You will need to regularly submit job search records.’

‘If you do not meet the minimum job search requirements, social assistance may be suspended.’

‘Healthcare will revert to the general insurance system, and you will need to bear some costs during unemployment.’

These explanations were not warnings, merely procedures.

Applicants would typically fall silent for a moment.

‘So returning does not mean going back to my original life?’ someone would ask.

‘No,’ Zhao Mingxiu replied, ‘it means starting to compete again.’

Most people would nod, indicating their understanding, and then choose to become part of the stable population.

In the early stages of the system’s operation, some individuals did indeed return. The proportion was low, but sufficient to form a sample. Data indicated that among those who chose to return, over 70% reapplied to become stable population within three months. The most frequently cited reasons in the comments were: uncertainty, fatigue, and high costs.

By the sixth year, the return rate stabilized at below 1%.

This was not due to difficulty. All return processes could be completed online, requiring no justification or review. It was simply that most individuals chose to close the page after reading the terms.

The proportion of stable population continued to rise.

The proportion of productive population declined.

The social conflict index decreased.

Economic fluctuations became more stable.

Voter turnout increased.

Policy documents described this phenomenon as a mature stage of democratic centralism. The population participating in politics decreased, but the risk and responsibility represented by each vote simultaneously increased.

In the seventh year, the administrative unit issued a brief announcement.

In light of the fact that the system has been fully understood by society, the identity transition explanation process will be fully online, with no on-site personnel for explanations.

The announcement did not provide a reason.

Internal data showed that the reading completion rate for the transition terms was nearing 100%. Most users could accurately recite the content without prompting.

When Zhao Mingxiu received the notification, he was not surprised.

His position was not marked for elimination but rather as ‘completion of phase tasks.’

The system displayed new options for him.

You currently belong to the productive population.

You may continue to participate in labor and political decision-making.

Or voluntarily transition to stable population.

The interface was identical to the one he had shown to others for many years.

That day, he sat alone in the explanation room for the last time. The standard terms still displayed on the wall. These sentences no longer needed to be read aloud. The entire society could recite them.

The next day, he logged into the system.

The online transition interface had no explanations, only two options left.

Become a stable population

Or

Remain a productive population

He clicked on ‘return explanation.’

The screen displayed:

You have not yet transitioned, no need to return.

He returned to the main screen and chose ‘Become a stable population.’

The system did not require him to confirm understanding again, nor did it ask him to reread the terms.

The screen displayed only one line of text.

Transition complete.

The new address and benefit effective date were updated immediately. The political rights status was displayed as ‘not activated.’

He closed the system and left the building.

The streets were quiet. Election campaigns were still ongoing, but there was no longer a need to explain to everyone.

Democracy still existed.

It had simply become a professional activity.

And Zhao Mingxiu, like most people, chose not to participate after fully understanding all of this.

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Why UK Electricity Costs Are Four Times Gas Prices

In the UK, electricity prices have long been significantly higher than gas prices, often approaching four times the latter. At first glance, this may seem like a mere case of ‘expensive energy’, but when compared to other European countries, the issue becomes particularly pronounced. In most European nations, residential electricity prices are typically only about double that of gas, with the highest being close to three times; the UK’s long-standing rates of over three times, even nearing four, represent a clear anomaly rather than an international norm.

This discrepancy is not an inevitable result of energy itself, but rather the consequence of two structural factors: policy costs are almost exclusively added to electricity prices, and the electricity system’s heavy reliance on gas. This combination has caused the UK’s pricing structure to diverge increasingly from its European peers, thereby hindering energy transition efforts.

First, let us examine the structure of the bills. Taking recent price caps as an example, residential electricity costs around 28–30 pence per kilowatt-hour, while gas is about 7–8 pence. Of the electricity bill, approximately 20%–25% consists of policy costs, whereas gas incurs only about 5%. These costs include historical burdens from renewable energy subsidies, capacity markets, energy efficiency programs, smart meter rollouts, and welfare expenditures such as the Warm Home Discount. The key point is that these costs are primarily paid through electricity bills rather than general taxation, which systematically elevates electricity prices. If we assume that all policy costs were completely removed from energy bills, the price ratio of electricity to gas could drop to around 3.3 times. In other words, a significant portion of the nearly fourfold difference is merely a result of bill design.

However, even if the ratio were reduced to 3.3 times, the UK would still be higher than most European countries. The reason lies in a deeper structural issue: the UK’s excessive dependence on gas for electricity generation. Compared to continental Europe, the UK has virtually no large-scale hydropower, a historically low proportion of nuclear power, and is an electricity grid island with limited cross-border interconnection capabilities. France can rely on nuclear power, the Nordic countries have hydropower, and Germany and the Netherlands have dense interconnections with neighboring countries for mutual adjustment. When wind resources are insufficient or after sunset, the most common marginal power source in the UK remains gas generation.

Moreover, the marginal pricing mechanism means that the most expensive, yet still necessary, gas plants determine the entire market price for electricity. Even though the actual costs of wind, solar, or nuclear power are lower, retail electricity prices are still driven by gas prices. Other European countries employ similar mechanisms, but due to a more diverse energy mix and larger grids, their dependence on gas is not as concentrated, leading to naturally lower electricity prices.

The problem is that this pricing structure directly contradicts energy transition goals. The government encourages households to switch to heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electric cooking; yet, the energy bills clearly send the opposite signal—electricity is expensive, gas is cheap. For households, the payback period for investing in heat pumps is extended; for businesses, high electricity prices erode competitiveness; and for the entire system, the cleanest energy sources are penalized by price.

Looking ahead, the situation is not without room for improvement. As the UK continues to increase renewable energy, extend nuclear power supply, and strengthen storage and grid interconnections, the time during which gas serves as the marginal power source will gradually shorten. Simultaneously, if policy and welfare expenditures are removed from electricity prices, the ratio of electricity to gas could still be further reduced. However, the prerequisite is to acknowledge a reality: energy transition is not just a matter of construction, but also of pricing and institutional issues.

As long as electricity prices continue to bear excessive non-electric public responsibilities and gas continues to dominate electricity price formation, the UK will find itself simultaneously advocating for carbon reduction while using prices to obstruct transition. To enable genuine transformation, the first step is not mere slogans, but to allow prices to reflect reality.

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A Clean Energy World is a More Peaceful World

Looking back at modern history reveals an uncomfortable yet undeniable truth: most wars have, at their core, been about the plunder or control of fossil fuels. The slogans may vary and the justifications may be grand, but energy is almost never absent from the equation. Oil and gas are not merely commodities; they are integral to national power, diplomacy, and military strategy. Those who control production sites and supply lines hold the negotiating leverage and can even turn energy into a weapon.

A prime example of this is the expansion of the Japanese military during World War II. Japan, lacking domestic oil supplies, found its military machine nearly immobilized after the United States and Britain imposed an oil embargo. The strategic necessity of advancing into Southeast Asia to seize the oil fields of the Dutch East Indies became apparent. The attack on Pearl Harbor was not an isolated incident but a fierce response to being choked off from energy supplies. From the outset, the Pacific War was deeply marked by the shadow of oil.

The post-war history did not fundamentally change this dynamic. The Gulf War of 1991 was ostensibly about sovereignty disputes, but what truly concerned the West was the oil supply from the Persian Gulf. By the time of the Iraq War in 2003, the official narrative shifted from weapons of mass destruction to counter-terrorism, yet the fate of oil fields and energy contracts post-war made everything clear. More recently, the Russia-Ukraine war has seen the battlefield in Ukraine, yet energy shocks have reverberated throughout Europe, with gas pipelines, supply rights, and prices becoming crucial elements of strategic contention.

The common thread in these conflicts is not ethnicity or ideology but the high concentration, irreplaceability, and plunderability of fossil fuels. The distribution of underground resources is extremely uneven; some regions have them while most do not, creating a naturally one-sided and fragile dependency. Once supply is cut off, economies and societies are immediately impacted, making war an extreme yet realistic option.

Renewable energy disrupts this logic. A frequently underestimated yet critical fact is that under renewable energy conditions, the vast majority of countries in the world can actually meet their energy needs domestically. The geographical distribution of sunlight and wind is far more equitable than that of oil and gas. Only a few small, densely populated city-states or micro-island nations struggle to achieve high energy self-sufficiency. They are exceptions rather than the norm.

However, this does not imply that countries will become isolated energy islands. On the contrary, clean energy fosters multi-directional interdependence rather than new forms of dependency. Different regions experience varying sunlight, wind patterns, and seasonal peaks, allowing countries to support each other through cross-border power grids, regional dispatching, and energy storage systems. This creates a relationship that is equal and networked, unlike the control structures of the fossil fuel era where some have and others do not.

Such interdependence inherently reduces the incentives for war. You can blockade oil ports or bomb pipelines, but you cannot block sunlight and wind; you can occupy oil fields, but you cannot occupy an entire sky. Energy transitions from being a plunderable prize back to a decentralized public infrastructure, naturally diminishing the role of military power within it.

The stability of energy prices should not be underestimated either. Fossil fuel prices are extremely sensitive to wars, sanctions, and coups; energy inflation often first impacts livelihoods, then destabilizes regimes, and ultimately spills over into external conflicts. Renewable energy requires high upfront investment, but once established, its marginal costs approach zero, leading to stable price trends. Stable energy means stable social expectations, which translates to fewer political risks.

When the world no longer fights over the plunder of fossil fuels, wars will naturally lose one of their most common and realistic justifications. A clean energy world may not be perfect, but it is indeed a world closer to peace.

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