Author name: 胡思

The Logic Behind Saudi Arabia’s Solar Energy Development

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter and the second-largest crude oil producer. Its core advantage lies not only in the abundance of oil but also in its low extraction costs. Industry estimates suggest that the production cost of Saudi crude oil is around $8 to $10 per barrel; in contrast, the cost of U.S. shale oil can reach $40 to $60 per barrel. Globally, Saudi oil is among the cheapest to produce.

Thus, when Saudi Arabia announced plans to add approximately 40 GW of solar power capacity over the next decade, many were taken aback: why, with the world’s cheapest oil, would it not simply burn oil for electricity but instead shift rapidly to solar energy?

The answer lies in economics. What does 40 GW represent? Currently, the total solar power capacity of the United Kingdom is about 15 GW. In other words, Saudi Arabia’s single-country expansion plan is nearly two and a half times the total existing solar capacity of the UK. This is not a symbolic investment but a significant commitment to reshaping its energy structure.

The crux of the matter is that ‘low extraction costs’ do not equate to ‘low usage costs.’ Oil is an international commodity, and its price is determined by global markets, irrespective of how cheaply it can be extracted. Even if Saudi oil can be extracted for $10 per barrel, burning it for electricity means forgoing the opportunity cost of exporting that barrel for revenue on the international market. This is not about saving money; it is about earning less.

Solar energy, on the other hand, is fundamentally different. Once a solar power station is built, the marginal cost of electricity generation approaches zero, consuming no exportable resources and remaining unaffected by fluctuations in oil prices. For Saudi Arabia, using solar power effectively liberates its most valuable oil from the lowest return applications.

Additionally, there is a practical factor: peak electricity demand in Saudi Arabia coincides with daytime and the scorching summer months, primarily driven by air conditioning needs, resulting in a generation curve that aligns closely with solar energy production. Under these conditions, large-scale solar power requires little reliance on expensive long-duration storage, further reducing system costs. The outcome is that in a desert nation, solar energy is not only environmentally friendly but also the most cost-effective investment.

This encapsulates the fundamental logic of the situation. Saudi Arabia is not abandoning oil; rather, it is reallocating its use. Oil is best suited for export; electricity should be produced locally at the lowest cost. When the world’s lowest-cost oil producer makes such a choice, those still skeptical about energy transition are left with the challenge of understanding this economic calculus.

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Warrington: A New Haven for Hong Kong Migrants

In recent years, many Hongkongers have chosen to relocate to the UK, and if they do not opt for London, their attention often turns to the North Midlands of England. After some time, one name has repeatedly surfaced within the Hong Kong community: Warrington. It is neither a tourist destination nor a traditional immigrant hub, yet it has gradually evolved into a place that many Hongkongers privately refer to as ‘Hong Kong Village.’ This description is not exaggerated. According to estimates from local community organizations and media, the number of Hong Kong families settling in Warrington has reached several thousand, making them one of the most noticeable new immigrant groups in the area in recent years.

The most direct reason remains the housing prices. For most Hongkongers coming to the UK under the BN(O) visa, immigration is not a short-term stay but a long-term reconstruction of their lives. The property prices in Warrington fall into the ‘affordable yet not remote’ category. With the same budget, one might only be able to purchase a small unit in the outskirts of London or in major city centres, while here there is an opportunity to acquire a semi-detached house with three or four bedrooms, complete with amenities, providing both space and a sense of stability. For families with children, this is a very practical and easily understandable choice.

The geographical location further enhances the appeal of this choice. Warrington is situated between Manchester and Liverpool, making it neither a remote outpost nor a passive commuter town. The railway connections are well-established, and commuting times are manageable; it is also adjacent to the M6 motorway, facilitating easy travel north and south. For families needing to work across cities, conduct business, or simply avoid being tied to a single city, this offers a high degree of flexibility. More importantly, with the gradual advancement of the Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) integration plan, Warrington is expected to become a transport hub, providing further opportunities for enhancement in its long-term status. What Hongkongers often value is not just the present, but the overall accessibility and development prospects five or ten years down the line.

Additionally, the city’s economic structure is noteworthy; it does not rely solely on residential development. Logistics, warehousing, commercial, and professional services have long been established here, giving the city a clear role rather than being a blank slate awaiting development. For immigrants, this means that job sources will not be overly singular, and local public services are likely to be more sustainable. Consequently, immigration becomes a relatively stable arrangement for living and assets, rather than merely a one-way consumption behavior.

As the first batch of Hongkongers settled in, a community effect naturally began to form. Information started to circulate, covering everything from property purchases, school networks, and healthcare registration to daily life details, with others having paved the way and shared their experiences. When newcomers discover that ‘there are already many fellow travelers here,’ the psychological barrier significantly diminishes. Over time, choosing Warrington no longer requires much persuasion, as the lifestyle has already been validated by predecessors.

One often overlooked aspect is the pace of life. Warrington is neither noisy nor desolate; it strikes a balance between a large city and a small town. Safety, community feeling, and daily convenience are well-balanced, ensuring that life here is neither exhausting nor disconnected from mainstream society. For many Hongkongers, the true purpose of relocating to the UK is to ‘slow down life without downsizing it,’ and this place just happens to offer such conditions.

Thus, Warrington has become a ‘Hong Kong Village’ and a haven for Hong Kong migrants, not because it is particularly dazzling, but because it meets key indicators just right. Housing prices, transportation, employment, community, and quality of life are not extreme in any one aspect, yet together they form a low-risk, high-certainty landing point. As immigrants transition from political events to daily living, such cities will naturally become more visible to an increasing number of people.

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The Crisis of Ski Resorts Amid Global Warming

For the past century, ski resorts have symbolized winter stability, nature’s generosity, and the lifeblood of mountain economies. Today, they have become the most visible and brutal victims of global warming. In the European Alps, an increasing number of ski resorts are quietly closing, not due to mismanagement, but because the absence of snow has become the norm. The disappearance of white slopes has not led to successful transformations, but rather to abandoned ‘ghost towns.’

The low-altitude ski resorts in the French Alps were the first to fall. Historic small resorts like Céüze, once the economic heart of local communities, provided jobs and income for entire valleys during winter. Now, as the snow line rises year by year and natural snowfall becomes increasingly unreliable, even artificial snowmaking often fails due to insufficiently low temperatures. Snowmaking equipment requires electricity and water, which are costly, while returns are becoming more uncertain. Consequently, local governments have ceased subsidies, operators choose to stem losses, and ski lifts stop running, leading to the closure of restaurants and hotels.

This is not an isolated incident but a structural collapse. The economic model of ski resorts is predicated on the assumption that ‘winter will always be cold.’ When this premise fails, the entire industry chain breaks down. Unemployment first strikes the grassroots level: ski lift operators, slope maintenance workers, and seasonal instructors; next, it affects hotels, guesthouses, restaurants, and equipment rental shops. Mountain economies are highly singular, and once winter tourism disappears, alternative industries are often non-existent, making population outflow nearly inevitable.

Some may think this is merely a European issue, with Asia still having room to maneuver. However, experiences from Japan and South Korea are shattering this illusion. Japan, renowned for its ‘powder snow,’ attracts a large number of overseas ski tourists, but in recent years, frequent warm winters have delayed the start of the season and led to inconsistent snow conditions, becoming a well-known concern in the industry. Some low-altitude ski resorts have had to shorten their operating periods or even close for the entire year. For rural areas reliant on winter tourism, this is not just a decline in tourism revenue but a destabilization of local finances and employment structures.

The situation in South Korea is equally severe. Many ski resorts are located at lower latitudes and altitudes, making them heavily dependent on artificial snow. With climate change, the ‘cold windows’ suitable for snowmaking have shortened, while electricity and water costs continue to rise. Some ski resorts require government support just to barely survive; otherwise, they face closure. These closures often do not make international headlines, but their impact on local communities is no less significant than that in the Alps.

It is worth noting that this crisis did not arrive suddenly. The scientific community has long pointed out that as global average temperatures rise, winter snowfall will exhibit ‘less and more unstable’ characteristics, particularly in mid- to low-altitude regions. The question is not whether it will happen, but when and how quickly it will occur. The closures of ski resorts today are, in fact, a delayed reckoning of years of ignored risks.

Ironically, artificial snowmaking itself is not a long-term solution. It is energy- and water-intensive, deepening reliance on cold climates and creating a vicious cycle. Once temperatures surpass a certain threshold, technology will be powerless. By then, the so-called ‘transformation’ will be nothing more than a slogan, leaving behind only sunk costs and shattered communities.

The closures of ski resorts remind us that global warming is not an abstract statistic or a distant future, but an ongoing economic and social event. It first strikes marginal areas, taking away seasonal jobs, hollowing out local economies, and ultimately rewriting demographic maps. Today, it is the slopes that disappear; tomorrow, it could be entire industries.

If there is one question worth pondering, it is this: when climate change has already begun to reshape landscapes and livelihoods, do we still pretend that this is merely the ‘individual misfortune’ of certain industries? The fate of ski resorts may be a preview of what awaits other industries reliant on stable climates.

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How UK MPs Enter Government Roles

In the British parliamentary system, executive power is not derived from a government separate from the legislature but is primarily drawn from the House of Commons. This fusion of executive and legislative functions is not uncommon, but the UK is characterized by a multitude of levels, broad coverage, and a high degree of politicization. To understand why the oversight function of the House of Commons often appears strained, one must first grasp the promotion and absorption ladder led by the Prime Minister.

At the base of this system is the Prime Minister. The Prime Minister is typically the leader of the party or coalition that commands a majority in the House of Commons, rather than being directly elected by the public. The core of the Prime Minister’s power lies not in statutory law but in political reality: who can appoint ministers and influence career trajectories. However, the Prime Minister is not entirely unchallenged. In practice, there is usually a mechanism within the ruling party for changing the party leader, such as internal confidence votes or leadership challenges; if the government loses the confidence of the House of Commons, it may trigger a no-confidence motion. These arrangements mean that the Prime Minister must, to some extent, listen to the opinions and pressures of party MPs, or risk ending their political career at any moment.

Beneath the Prime Minister, there exists a politically symbolic position that is not always present: the Deputy Prime Minister. This position is not statutory; its establishment and the individual who occupies it are entirely dependent on the Prime Minister’s political needs. Often, the British government does not have a Deputy Prime Minister; even when one is appointed, their powers may not be clearly defined. The Deputy Prime Minister may simply serve as the Prime Minister’s political aide, balancing internal party factions, appeasing coalition partners, or presiding over certain matters in the Prime Minister’s temporary absence. In other words, the Deputy Prime Minister is not a necessary rung on the ladder of power but rather a highly flexible role that is purely a political arrangement.

The true core of the executive is comprised of Cabinet Ministers, typically numbering around twenty to twenty-three. The Cabinet is the highest decision-making circle of the government, responsible for major policy directions and inter-departmental coordination. Most of these individuals are also heads of departments, commonly referred to as Secretaries of State. Within the Cabinet, there is a clear distinction between core and secondary departments, with power not evenly distributed. Traditionally, the most significant positions include the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Home Secretary, and Foreign Secretary, who often exert substantial influence on the Prime Minister regarding budget, security, foreign affairs, and national safety. Although the Cabinet theoretically operates on a principle of collective decision-making, in practical politics, the weight of these senior Cabinet Ministers is noticeably greater than that of other members.

It is important to clarify that Cabinet Ministers and heads of departments are not entirely synonymous. There are indeed a few Cabinet members who do not hold any departmental head position, such as those responsible for inter-departmental coordination or parliamentary affairs. Conversely, there are very few heads of departments who have not been invited by the Prime Minister to join the Cabinet, usually to diminish the political weight of a particular department or minister. This indicates that who can enter the Cabinet ultimately depends on the Prime Minister’s political arrangements rather than the title itself.

Next in line are Ministers of State, numbering approximately thirty to thirty-five. They are senior deputies within departments, responsible for significant but clearly defined policy areas, such as energy, immigration, or local government affairs. This tier also constitutes formal government members, required to adhere to collective responsibility and strict party discipline, serving as an important pillar of the executive system.

Following this are Parliamentary Under-Secretaries of State, numbering around forty to forty-five. This is the lowest level of formal officials, yet they still belong to the government. They are responsible for more specialized policies, parliamentary responses, and technical legislative work. Politically, this often serves as the first stepping stone for backbench MPs aspiring to higher administrative positions; once they take this step, they are no longer completely free overseers.

These three tiers—heads of departments, Ministers of State, and Parliamentary Under-Secretaries—collectively comprise approximately ninety to one hundred and five MPs, forming the formal government of the UK. This alone represents a higher proportion than is typical in most mature parliamentary democracies.

The most atypical aspect of the UK system lies in an informal yet politically significant role: the Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS). There are typically around forty to fifty PPSs. They are not ministers, hold no executive power, and receive no additional remuneration, only their basic MP salary. However, in political practice, PPSs are regarded as insiders of the government, required to support government votes and prohibited from publicly opposing policies; any breach of discipline almost invariably leads to resignation. The true function of a PPS is not administrative assistance but rather a loyalty test and talent screening. This arrangement, lacking legal status yet effectively enforcing MP discipline, is quite rare in other parliamentary democracies.

When considering the entire ladder, among six hundred and fifty MPs, approximately one hundred and forty to one hundred and fifty hold official positions or are tied to the government. In other words, over one-fifth of the House of Commons members are not overseeing the government but are part of it or quasi-government. It must be acknowledged that this system, which directly draws individuals from the House of Commons to form the government, does indeed bring certain practical benefits. The close integration of executive and legislative functions means that government members are themselves elected representatives, required to respond immediately in Parliament, facilitating swift policy implementation and relatively clear accountability. In situations of political stability and clear majorities, this arrangement can enhance governance efficiency and reduce the gap between executive power and public opinion.

However, the costs are equally evident and structural. When too many MPs are absorbed into the executive system, the mechanisms of oversight and checks and balances can be systematically weakened; when promotion is closely tied to loyalty, parliamentary independence can easily yield to career considerations; and the existence of informal roles like the PPS further allows executive power to expand without increasing accountability. The core issue of the system does not lie in whether MPs should hold office but in whether the depth and breadth of absorption is imbalanced. How to recalibrate between executive efficiency and parliamentary independence remains the most challenging issue that this system has long faced.

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The Real Impact of Electric Vehicles on Oil Demand

Many still regard electric vehicles as a “future technology,” believing that their impact on the oil market is still a distant concern. However, reality has already outpaced these predictions. By 2025, the newly added electric vehicles alone will be sufficient to cause a global decline in oil demand by approximately 0.5% annually, translating to a reduction of nearly 200 million barrels of oil each year. In a world that consumes about 38 billion barrels of oil annually, this is not a marginal change but a clear signal that demand structures are beginning to shift.

More importantly, this impact will not dissipate; it will accumulate. Electric vehicles are not a one-off policy stimulus but durable goods. A typical gasoline vehicle consumes about 10 barrels of oil each year; when it is replaced by an electric vehicle, this demand will continue to disappear over the next decade or more. The approximately 20 million electric vehicles sold globally in 2025 will not merely reduce oil consumption for that year but will lock in a trajectory of declining demand for many years to come.

This transition is crucially linked to the structure of oil usage. Land transportation currently consumes about half of the world’s oil, with private cars and light commercial vehicles accounting for the largest share and being the most easily electrified segment. Electric vehicles are not infiltrating the oil market from the periphery but are directly targeting its core, most stable sources of demand. When this half of the demand begins to loosen, the long-term balance of the entire market will be rewritten.

Official scenario analyses also corroborate this direction. The International Energy Agency’s assessments indicate that under the continuation of existing policies, the global electric vehicle fleet could avoid the consumption of approximately 1.8 billion barrels of oil annually by 2030; by 2035, this figure will rise to about 3.6 billion barrels. If the emission reduction commitments announced by various countries are fully realized, the annual reduction by 2035 could even reach over 4 billion barrels.

Putting these numbers back into the overall context makes their significance clear. Based on the global oil demand of approximately 38 billion barrels annually, road electrification alone could reduce annual demand by nearly 10% by 2035. This is no longer a fluctuation in a specific year or region but a fundamental challenge to the long-term prospects of the oil industry. The real acceleration is likely to occur after 2035, when multiple major economies have closed the policy gates. The European Union and the United Kingdom have already set timelines to ban the sale of most new gasoline and diesel cars, and the oil demand suppressed by the proliferation of electric vehicles will only further accelerate the decline.

Some may point out that aviation, shipping, and petrochemicals still heavily rely on oil, and electric vehicles cannot “eliminate” oil. While this statement is not incorrect, it overlooks a more pressing issue: the oil market does not need to be eradicated; losing its growth engine is sufficient to change everything. When the largest, most stable, and most predictable sources of demand begin to contract year by year, expectations for oil prices, investment returns, and capacity planning will inevitably need to be recalibrated.

Therefore, the real question worth asking today is no longer whether “electric vehicles will affect oil demand in the future,” but rather: when electric vehicles are already suppressing demand by hundreds of millions of barrels annually and will accelerate further after 2035, why do some still choose to pretend that none of this has happened?

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Manchester’s Economic Rise and Appeal to Immigrants

When discussing the British economy, many still hold the impression that London dominates. However, over the past two decades, it has been Manchester that has consistently delivered stable results. This city, once devastated by deindustrialization, has not relied on short-term stimuli for recovery. Instead, it has gradually reshaped its identity through long-term institutional reforms, public investments, and talent cultivation. As a result, its economic growth has consistently outpaced the national average, making it a significant destination for recent immigrants from Hong Kong.

First, consider the structural changes. Since the early 2000s, the economic scale of the Greater Manchester metropolitan area has nearly doubled, with job growth, business investment, and entrepreneurial activity consistently ranking among the top in British cities. The key lies not in a single industry but in a diversified layout: financial and professional services have steadily expanded, while the media and creative industries have gradually taken shape. Life sciences, advanced manufacturing, and digital technology are closely tied to the development of universities and healthcare systems. This approach does not bet on a single track but builds a resilient and sustainable urban economic structure.

Political governance is equally important. Since the establishment of an elected mayor in 2017, Andy Burnham has tirelessly sought to devolve powers over transport, skills, and housing policies from the central government, allowing local authorities to allocate resources according to their needs. A notable achievement is the Bee Network, which integrates bus, tram, and cycling networks into a single system with unified ticketing, clear routes, and predictable schedules, fundamentally addressing the long-standing fragmentation of public transport. For citizens, this is not just macro policy; it translates into tangible improvements in daily commutes and affordability.

Housing is a key advantage for Manchester compared to other British cities. Unlike many cities in southern England, Manchester has adopted a pragmatic approach to planning. Over the past decade, high-density residential developments have continued to emerge in the city center and inner ring, keeping pace with population and economic growth. The result has been a relatively manageable increase in housing prices. For many immigrants from Hong Kong, this means that home ownership is a calculable and planned long-term option.

A city’s ability to retain residents also depends on whether it is livable. Many British cities are bustling during the day but empty at night; Manchester is different. Retail, dining, cultural facilities, and the nighttime economy are highly concentrated, creating a city center that is truly inhabited and vibrant. This compact and efficient urban lifestyle significantly lowers the adaptation costs for immigrants accustomed to Hong Kong’s density and convenience, making it easier for them to establish a sense of belonging.

Ultimately, a city’s competitiveness hinges on its people. Manchester’s universities are among the most densely packed and industry-connected in the UK. The University of Manchester has international influence in engineering, life sciences, and research capabilities, while Manchester Metropolitan University and the University of Salford closely align with local industry and urban renewal needs, providing a continuous supply of skilled and professional talent. Universities are not mere observers but core participants in the city’s transformation.

Soft power should not be overlooked. Football is not just an embellishment; it is part of the city’s brand. Manchester United and Manchester City have propelled the city onto the global stage, attracting tourism, foot traffic, and international investment. The intertwining of sports, music, and cultural industries gives the city both industrial depth and a vibrant atmosphere.

For this reason, the recent influx of Hong Kong residents choosing to settle in Manchester is no coincidence. Actual community distributions show that many Hongkongers cluster around Salford, Sale, and Altrincham, areas not far from the city center, with mature public transport, diverse school options, and relatively manageable housing prices and living costs compared to London. More importantly, job opportunities are widely distributed, allowing new immigrants to choose paths that align with their backgrounds without being forced into the financial sector.

Moreover, Greater Manchester’s political and socio-cultural environment has traditionally been relatively friendly to immigrants. This does not need to be loudly proclaimed, but in terms of institutional design, public services, and community attitudes, newcomers are less often seen as burdens and more as part of the city’s vitality. This atmosphere has a profound impact on immigrants who have left their original social networks.

Ultimately, the reason Manchester attracts Hongkongers is not necessarily because it is the most glamorous city, but because it is pragmatic. It respects professionalism, values efficiency, and allows for upward mobility. This urban ethos resonates with Hong Kong, which is why many people, upon arriving in Manchester, no longer view it merely as a transitional place but as a city where they can establish long-term roots.

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The Real Considerations Behind High-Sulfur Fuel Ban

In 2020, the shipping industry implemented a comprehensive ban on high-sulfur fuel, leading to a curious reversal in climate discussions. Recent studies suggest that this policy, originally aimed at improving air quality, could result in an additional global warming of 0.05°C in the short term. The reason is not mysterious: the sulfate aerosols produced from burning high-sulfur fuel reflect solar radiation and enhance the brightness of low clouds over the ocean, creating a cooling mask that has persisted for years. When this mask is rapidly removed on a global scale, the warming already locked in by carbon dioxide becomes more pronounced.

However, this does not imply that decision-makers are ignoring science. The core rationale for the sulfur ban has never been climate-related but rather focused on public health. The fine particulate matter and acid pollution emitted from high-sulfur fuel have direct and clear detrimental effects on the respiratory and cardiovascular health of port cities and coastal communities. These impacts can be quantified and immediately mitigated through policy. In contrast, the 0.05°C increase is an indirect consequence at the level of the overall climate system, making it difficult to justify the retention of pollution. Consequently, the governing rules are not dictated by the climate sector but by the shipping regulatory framework grounded in safety and health, such as the International Maritime Organization.

Given that the short-term warming effect of the sulfur ban is more apparent, a seemingly compromise suggestion has emerged in recent years: should high-sulfur fuel only be banned in nearshore and port waters while allowing ships to continue using it in the open ocean to retain some cooling effects while alleviating health impacts along the coast? This concept appears reasonable on paper, but it fails both physically and institutionally. Sulfate aerosols do not remain offshore; they diffuse to coastal areas and even inland within days due to atmospheric circulation. Moreover, sulfur ultimately returns to the surface through deposition, causing acid rain and ocean surface acidification, which harm ecosystems. Pollution does not respect coastal boundaries; simply increasing sulfur emissions offshore is merely a fantasy.

A deeper issue lies in the temporal structure of climate governance. The cooling effect of sulfur is a typical flow effect that requires continuous emissions to exist; in contrast, carbon dioxide is a stock problem that can accumulate in the atmosphere for hundreds of years once emitted. Intentionally retaining high-sulfur fuel as a climate buffer would only establish system stability on a form of pollution that will eventually be phased out, laying the groundwork for a more severe warming rebound in the future. From this perspective, that 0.05°C is not new warming caused by the sulfur ban but rather a reality that has long existed, merely obscured in the past.

Therefore, the ban on high-sulfur fuel is not a result of scientific ignorance but rather a choice grounded in clear value judgments. It rejects the extension of a fragile climate illusion at the expense of health and the environment, compelling society to confront the real challenge: when the mask is removed, the only sustainable path to cooling is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions more quickly and thoroughly, rather than seeking gray areas of pollution between nearshore and offshore.

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Reorganization Cannot Justify Canceling Elections

A recent decision in local politics in England has far-reaching implications. The government announced that the local elections scheduled for May 2026 in 29 local councils will be postponed for a year, to 2027. The rationale is that these areas are undergoing a restructuring of local government from a two-tier system to a unitary council. This arrangement means that millions of voters will lose an opportunity to vote within the scheduled electoral cycle, while the incumbent councils will continue to exercise public authority without reobtaining voter mandate.

This is not the first postponement. Previously, elections in nine local councils were delayed by a year due to restructuring. With this latest arrangement, some regions will effectively experience two consecutive electoral cycles without voting. As a result, some local councillors, who were originally supposed to serve a four-year term, will find their time in office extended to nearly six years. This is not a minor administrative adjustment but a substantial weakening of the democratic principle of ‘regular accountability.’

The power to approve postponements is centralized in the government. Under current legislation, Local Government Minister Steve Reed can change the ‘ordinary election year’ for individual local councils through secondary legislation. His explanation is that the postponement responds to requests from local councils, aiming to avoid the distraction of elections during the restructuring period. Among the 29 councils involved in the postponement, 21 are controlled by the Labour Party, four by the Conservative Party, two by the Liberal Democrats, and the remainder by the Green Party, independents, or councils without overall control. The issue is not which party holds the majority, but rather that once the system allows for postponements, any party in power can invoke the same rationale.

The Electoral Commission has expressed clear concerns regarding this matter. The Commission points out that regular elections are a core principle of democracy and should only be considered for postponement in extreme and genuinely exceptional circumstances. It also warns that allowing the incumbent councils to participate in or lead the decision on whether to postpone constitutes a clear conflict of interest and undermines public trust in the electoral system. In other words, this is not merely a matter of political perception but a question of institutional integrity.

Arguments in favor of postponement often focus on cost and efficiency. Some argue that if a new unitary council is about to be established, holding another election under the old structure is not ‘cost-effective.’ However, this line of thinking fundamentally reverses the priorities of democracy. The purpose of elections has never been to pursue administrative efficiency but to ensure that power regularly returns to the voters for scrutiny and evaluation.

A historical perspective further clarifies the importance of this boundary. In 2019, the UK was at a critical juncture in its departure from the European Union, with a highly uncertain political outlook, yet the European Parliament elections proceeded as scheduled. The UK-elected Members of the European Parliament were legally sworn in on July 2, 2019, and served until the UK officially exited the EU on January 31, 2020, for a term of only about seven months. Even with a brief term and an impending change in the system, elections were still regarded as an indispensable democratic process.

The root of the problem lies in the excessive flexibility left by current laws. As long as the law allows ministers to change election years for administrative reasons, elections cease to be an unassailable institutional safeguard and become a policy option subject to adjustment. This not only weakens local democracy but also paves the way for more extensive postponements in the future. The law should be amended to clearly stipulate that local elections can only be postponed in extreme circumstances and set higher thresholds, such as requiring substantial parliamentary approval, to prevent any government from delaying voter authorization under the guise of administrative convenience. The value of a democratic system lies in its resistance to easy alteration; once this boundary becomes blurred, democracy itself will gradually lose its weight.

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Nuclear Fusion Cannot Save the Earth

In recent discussions about energy transition, nuclear fusion is often heralded as the ultimate solution. The narrative is largely the same: in ten to eight years, humanity will master nearly free and inexhaustible clean energy, rendering the costs incurred today for solar, wind, grid, and energy storage merely a waste of a transitional period. This vision may sound rational, but it is, in fact, a form of escapist optimism. Nuclear fusion is not a myth, but using it as a reason to delay action is a serious misjudgment of the climate crisis.

The harsh reality of climate change lies in its accounting of cumulative emissions rather than final answers. Every ton of carbon dioxide emitted over the next twenty years will permanently remain in the climate system. Even if nuclear fusion matures in the 2040s, it cannot reverse the consequences of continued fossil fuel combustion during this time. Placing hope in yet-to-emerge technology is akin to choosing inaction during the most critical window for emission reductions; this is not prudence but gambling.

Moreover, there is the matter of cost and reality. Even with the most promising high-field tokamak designs, nuclear fusion, in the best-case scenario, merely brings electricity generation costs closer to those of modern nuclear fission or gas plants with carbon capture. It cannot compete with solar and wind on price, nor can it spread as rapidly as renewable energy. In other words, even if nuclear fusion succeeds, it will at best be a small, expensive, and stable supplementary power source, rather than the mainstay for global emission reductions.

Yet, some commit another logical fallacy, believing they can ‘forego renewable energy now and switch to nuclear fusion later.’ Energy systems in reality do not operate this way. Solar panels and wind turbines have lifespans of about twenty-five to thirty years, perfectly covering the transitional period until nuclear fusion might mature. Even if fusion does become a reality, the renewable energy deployed today will simply enter a phase of replacement and upgrading, rather than being wasted. There is no such thing as an energy transition that involves a complete halt followed by a leap to the finish line.

The issue extends beyond technology to opportunity costs. Every dollar of public resources, policy attention, and political energy excessively wagered on the distant prospect of nuclear fusion means less available for the most urgent tasks at hand: expanding the grid, deploying energy storage, promoting electrification of buildings and transport, and dismantling the systemic privileges of fossil fuels. These tasks do not require scientific breakthroughs; they only need political will. Packaging delay as foresight is the most misleading aspect of the nuclear fusion narrative.

A deeper danger lies in the psychological realm. Nuclear fusion provides decision-makers with a comfortable excuse; as long as they believe in the future of ultimate technology, all unpopular reforms can be postponed. This comfort may be friendly to voters but is meaningless to the climate system. The Earth will not slow its warming simply because humanity makes progress in laboratories; it only responds to whether emissions are genuinely declining.

Stating that nuclear fusion cannot save the Earth does not deny its research value. If it matures by the middle of this century, it could indeed become a piece of the low-carbon energy puzzle, filling gaps that renewable energy cannot cover. However, using future possibilities as a reason for inaction today is the greatest error. The truly enlightened choice is to vigorously advance already available renewable energy that can reduce emissions immediately while allowing nuclear fusion to develop gradually in the background. Saving the Earth has never been about waiting for a miracle; it is about bearing the costs now.

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Will Wales’ electoral reform set a future blueprint?

In 2026, Wales will undergo a seemingly low-key yet profound institutional shift that will redefine its democratic operations. The Welsh Parliament (Senedd Cymru) will fully adopt a closed-list proportional representation system, eliminating single-member or mixed compensation elements. This is not merely a technical adjustment but a direct response to the core flaws of the UK electoral system.

This reform is not a spur-of-the-moment decision but the result of years of review by the Welsh government. Official documents repeatedly highlight a central contradiction: since 1999, the Parliament’s legislative powers and financial functions have expanded, yet the number of members has remained at 60, making it the smallest parliament in the UK despite its significant responsibilities. The existing mixed electoral system has failed to achieve true proportional representation and has created a disparity in the status of two types of representatives, affecting parliamentary operations. After comparing the Scottish mixed system and Northern Ireland’s STV, Wales has opted for the clearest institutional goal: to directly adopt a full proportional representation system, thereby expanding representation and enhancing oversight capabilities.

Wales will be divided into 16 electoral regions, each with 6 seats, which is crucial to the entire system’s design. Theoretically, the effective threshold for representation is about 14%; however, under actual voting distributions and list allocations, the real threshold for parties to secure seats typically falls between 10% and 11%. This level effectively serves as a filter: parties with insufficient, overly fragmented support, or those relying solely on a single extreme issue, will struggle to cross the threshold; conversely, any political force achieving stable double-digit support will have seat allocations that roughly reflect its actual vote share. The result is that overall proportionality is maintained without excessive fragmentation that could hinder governance.

This system also introduces a practical change that is often overlooked: it virtually eliminates the need for by-elections. Under the closed-list system, if a member vacates their seat, the next candidate on the same list can simply step in, avoiding the costly by-elections and reducing the risk of constituencies lacking representation during critical times. The system operates more smoothly, and politics is stripped of unnecessary randomness.

Some have suggested that Scotland’s mixed system could serve as a compromise; however, the issue lies precisely in the notion of ‘compromise.’ The mixed system theoretically compensates for the distortions of single-member systems with list seats, yet in practice, it often fails to fully correct proportionality due to excessive wins at the single-member level. When a party secures too many regional seats, even if list seats are allocated to other parties, the final seat proportion remains higher than the actual vote share. Proportional representation here is discounted, merely exhibiting a milder distortion than the single-member system.

Looking further at Northern Ireland’s STV, which employs a transferable vote system, the issue arises on another level. While STV theoretically balances proportionality with voters’ choices for individual candidates, the system is complex, and the counting process is lengthy, presenting a high understanding threshold for voters. In Northern Ireland, STV primarily serves to reconcile sectarian divisions, ensuring that different communities can enter Parliament; however, in a political environment lacking such structural divisions, the additional complexity of STV often does not yield corresponding institutional benefits. For Wales, while closed-list PR may not be glamorous, it is clearer, more predictable, and easier to explain to voters.

As for the single-member plurality system (FPTP) used in the House of Commons, and the superficially ‘multi-member, multi-vote’ system in local elections that essentially follows the same logic, the fundamental issue lies in the systematic distortion of seat numbers, fundamentally remaining a winner-takes-all approach. Under this system, there is no stable relationship between vote share and seat share. In past UK general elections, parties with just over 40% of the vote have secured a majority, or even close to two-thirds of the seats, creating what is termed a ‘strong government’; conversely, parties that receive over 10%, or even close to 20% of the national vote, may only secure a few seats, or risk being nearly voiceless in Parliament. Electoral systems not only reflect public opinion but also reshape the weight of power, creating a false majority that is long out of sync with social structures.

In this sense, Wales’ reform is not merely a technical adjustment in local politics but a shift in institutional attitude. It no longer attempts to ‘patch’ the single-member system but directly opts for a system that more honestly reflects public opinion. While closed-list representation may not be perfect, the distribution of power is at least transparent.

Moreover, this reform may serve as a reference blueprint for future parliamentary and local elections. Once proven feasible, we will find it increasingly difficult to ignore a simple question: if a system can more accurately reflect voter choices, why cling to an outdated mechanism that has long produced distortions?

Will Wales’ electoral reform set a future blueprint? Read More »

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