Author name: 胡思

The 2016 referendum set the United Kingdom on a long and painful path. Brexit passed with a narrow margin of 52% to 48%, driven not by calm analysis but by the misleading slogan on the red bus claiming ‘£350 million a week for the NHS’ and emotional appeals to ‘take back control’. Nine years on, reality has gradually unfolded: tariffs and regulatory barriers have risen, business investment has been stifled, trade volumes have declined, and productivity has stagnated. The OBR, the Bank of England, and international research institutions now broadly agree that the UK’s GDP has permanently shrunk by 4–8% compared to remaining in the EU, resulting in the government losing billions of pounds in tax revenue each year, forcing it to make difficult choices between raising taxes, cutting spending, or borrowing more.

The pain is tangible, and the consequences are clear, leading to a shift in public opinion. Recent polls indicate that over 60% of voters believe Brexit was a mistake; even in areas that voted for Brexit, an increasing number of people acknowledge that life has become more difficult. British public sentiment has shifted from viewing Brexit as a victory to recognizing it as a costly mistake, marking a fundamental change in the political climate.

In this new environment, the Labour government has begun to adjust its tone. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has acknowledged that Brexit is a primary cause of the economic predicament; Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden has pointed out that a customs union could aid growth; and Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy has repeatedly dodged questions about whether he believes the UK will not rejoin the EU during his lifetime. While the tone has softened, the policies remain rigid. Labour admits that Brexit has caused trauma but continues to uphold three red lines: no return to the EU, no return to the single market, and no return to the customs union, akin to knowing the remedy yet refusing to prescribe it.

This stance of ‘acknowledging the problem but not addressing it’ reflects Labour’s fear of alienating Brexit-supporting voters in England and reigniting cultural tensions. They are only willing to propose technical adjustments: restoring student exchanges, improving research collaboration, and reducing border inspection costs. While these measures are necessary, they cannot fill the deep void left by the loss of market access. The UK economy continues to sink, while Labour comforts itself with the notion that ‘at least we haven’t angered anyone’.

In stark contrast, the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, and the Scottish National Party are candid. They are willing to articulate what Labour dares not: if the UK wants to restore economic vitality, it must reintegrate with Europe. The Liberal Democrats advocate rejoining the single market and view rejoining the EU as a long-term goal; the Green Party calls for the restoration of free movement, prioritizing opportunities for young people; and the Scottish National Party asserts that Scotland’s future lies within the EU. Their positions may be sharp, but at least they are honest, unlike Labour’s indecisiveness.

More importantly, even if the UK genuinely wishes to rejoin the EU, the path is fraught with difficulty. The 27 EU member states hold veto power; as long as any one country opposes, the UK will never be able to return. The UK’s recent years of vacillation, chaos, and hostility towards Europe have eroded its trustworthiness. Repairing these rifts will likely require several governments to maintain a consistent direction, rather than Labour’s current strategy of ‘softening the tone without action’.

Today’s Labour Party appears to acknowledge the mistakes of Brexit, yet it is unwilling to take genuine steps toward improvement. The UK is paying a heavy price for a referendum held nine years ago; public opinion has reversed, and the reality is clear: what the UK needs is not more delays, but leadership willing to confront the truth and plan for a long-term direction.

If Labour continues to progress at this pace, the UK will remain trapped in the shadow of Brexit’s aftershocks, while the true forces willing to lead the country back to Europe lie outside the government.

The British immigration system has evolved over a century, and while principles can be adjusted, there is one line that must not be crossed: the government cannot retroactively change the rules, nor can it push individuals who have made life decisions based on previous regulations off a cliff. The HSMP (Highly Skilled Migrant Programme) is a classic case that exemplifies the consequences of such retroactive changes, ultimately resulting in a government defeat. Today, as the government attempts to tighten residency requirements, this historical lesson is particularly relevant.

Launched in 2002, HSMP was the UK’s first large-scale initiative to attract high-skilled talent from around the globe. The guidelines were clear: after one year of residence, individuals could extend their stay for three more years, and those who were economically active for four consecutive years could apply for permanent residency. This was the UK’s commitment to the world: if you were willing to contribute, we would provide a pathway to settle down. Many made the decision to leave their home countries and start anew in the UK based on this promise.

In 2006, the government abruptly changed the rules. The first step was to extend the original four-year pathway to permanent residency to five years, not only for new applicants but also retroactively applied to all existing HSMP migrants. Many who had just completed four years and were preparing to apply for permanent residency were forced to renew their visas, incurring additional costs, scrutiny, and uncertainty in their lives.

In November and December of the same year, a more severe blow was dealt. The government abolished the previously lenient renewal rules, requiring all HSMP migrants (including those who had been in the UK for years) to pass a stricter ‘points-based test’ covering income, education, age, and UK experience, along with new English language requirements. The previous commitment that ‘reasonable efforts to integrate into the economy would suffice for renewal’ was suddenly replaced by criteria favoring higher earners. Many immigrants with extensive local experience but lower incomes, who had always complied with the law, were suddenly deemed ‘ineligible.’

Affected individuals subsequently sought judicial review. The court’s ruling was emphatic. Judge George Newman pointed out that the government had established a clear ‘reasonable expectation’ when introducing HSMP: applicants came to the UK based on the original rules and arranged their lives accordingly. The government’s subsequent tightening of rules retroactively was tantamount to undermining the life arrangements that applicants had already formed, which was both unfair and lacked sufficient policy justification. He noted that these individuals had settled, worked in the UK, and their situations had ‘crystallized’; the government could not arbitrarily change its stance at this point.

Ultimately, the court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs, ordering the government to withdraw the retroactive conditions; the government was also compelled to restore the original renewal and permanent residency pathways for former HSMP migrants, even providing supplementary arrangements for some to complete their residency under the original four or four-plus-one year terms. The HSMP case became an important precedent in immigration administrative law: policies can be adjusted, but they must not harm those who have made significant decisions based on previous regulations.

Today, the government’s consultation document proposes extending the pathway to permanent residency to ten years, using a ‘contribution’ system as a framework for adjusting the duration. While the duration itself remains open for discussion, the UK indeed needs to stabilize immigration levels and ensure social integration. However, for Hong Kong residents in the UK, due to the BNO (British National Overseas) status allowing a five-year reduction, the real concern is not the ten years but the two hard requirements proposed by the government: an English proficiency level raised to B2 and a continuous income of £12,570 for three to five years.

If these two requirements are applied retroactively to all who have yet to obtain permanent residency, the consequences would mirror those of the HSMP case. Many housewives, part-time workers, self-employed individuals, full-time caregivers, and students, or those whose income has not met the threshold due to career changes, would be directly excluded from permanent residency; the B2 English requirement is significantly higher than the current B1, potentially rendering many long-term Hong Kong residents suddenly ‘ineligible.’ The core of judicial scrutiny is not whether the government can set new thresholds, but whether it can overturn old commitments without consequence.

The lesson from HSMP is clear: policies can change, but procedures must remain consistent; pathways to immigration can be tightened, but they must not dismantle the lives people have built based on existing rules. If the UK forgets this principle today, the issue will extend beyond the duration of permanent residency to the very credibility of the system itself.

Nigel Farage’s controversies began to take shape even before he entered the political arena. While attending Dulwich College, several former classmates and teachers alleged that he had told a Jewish student, “Hitler was right,” and mimicked gas chamber actions. One teacher even wrote to the headmaster, warning him about Farage’s emerging fascist tendencies. While the details may be difficult to verify, the collective memory is strikingly consistent: this young man relished crossing lines and provoking others, and his actions were far from innocent blunders.

Initially, he could have acknowledged his youthful ignorance and offered a candid apology, which might have quelled the situation. However, Farage chose to deny and deflect, dismissing all accusations as jokes or claiming he could not remember. The crux of the matter lies in what he is being asked to demonstrate—not policy, but honesty and judgment; ironically, these are precisely the qualities he lacks.

The Reform Party’s performance at the local level has magnified this attitude into a complete party culture. Following local elections, the Reform Party claimed over 600 seats, asserting its intent to “reshape Britain.” Yet, within just a few months, dozens of MPs across the country have been suspended, expelled, or resigned. A leaked internal meeting in Kent descended into chaos, with leadership hurling expletives at colleagues, paralyzing the council; the council leader in Staffordshire was exposed for making prejudiced remarks on an anonymous account; in Lancashire, an MP was embroiled in extremist messaging groups; in Essex, an MP incited emotions at an anti-mosque protest; and multiple local councils in Wales have seen incidents of racial abuse. Different regions, different events, yet they reveal the same trajectory: gaffes, immorality, and loss of control, with no oversight from the top down.

More troubling is the infiltration by foreign powers. Nathan Gill, a former heavyweight figure in the Reform Party and ex-MEP, has admitted to receiving Russian funds and lobbying for foreign interests, resulting in a harsh court sentence. Farage has proclaimed “patriotism” for years, yet his allies find themselves in the dock for speaking on behalf of Russia, a glaring contrast.

Policy-wise, there is little to inspire confidence. In several upper councils controlled by the Reform Party, leaders have touted a revolution in efficiency, claiming to “reduce waste.” The outcome, however, has been a gradual erosion of social services, with finances remaining tight, ultimately pushing municipal taxes to near the legal limit of 5%. What cannot be saved remains unsaved, with the burden falling on residents.

Symbolic projects, however, have been implemented swiftly. Nottinghamshire spent approximately £75,000 erecting over a hundred Union Jack flags across the region; other councils have busied themselves banning rainbow flags, Ukrainian flags, and even discussing the hiring of political consultants. While the quality of life stagnates, the flagpoles are notably active.

When these threads are woven together, they paint a remarkably consistent picture: leaders unwilling to take responsibility for the past; lax party discipline leading to frequent moral failings among MPs; local governments struggling between tax hikes and budget cuts; and symbolic politics overshadowing the needs of the populace. This is not an anomaly but a deeply rooted party ethos.

If these local councils are a preview of a future “Farage government,” would you still want to see the full feature?

The current political and fiscal landscape in the UK presents a stark and perplexing contradiction: the government publicly advocates for a reduction in immigration while quietly relying on high immigration levels to maintain fiscal balance. The disparity between rhetoric and reality ultimately undermines the credibility of public finances.

The Labour Party criticizes the Conservative government for opening the floodgates to immigration, resulting in record net migration levels. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has made reducing immigration a priority. The latest data indicates that net migration fell to 204,000 by June, which the government describes as a step toward its target, emphasizing the need to ‘do more’ and continue to push downward. Visa conditions have been tightened repeatedly, leading to a significant decline in the issuance of work, study, and family visas, while industries reliant on overseas labor have begun to scale back recruitment. If this trend continues, it is not difficult to foresee net migration approaching zero in a few years, or even briefly turning into a net outflow.

However, fiscal forecasts tell a different story. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) continues to assume in its latest budget that net migration will rebound and stabilize at around 340,000 annually, calculating that new immigrants will reduce borrowing by approximately £7.4 billion each year during the forecast period. This assumption equates to the belief that the UK can simultaneously achieve two mutually exclusive goals: tightening immigration sources while attracting more people than currently enter. Both cannot hold true at the same time.

This contradiction is not limited to the Labour Party. For years, the Conservative Party has vocally aimed to reduce net migration to ‘below 100,000’; the Reform Party has even adopted the far-right rhetoric of ‘remigration,’ advocating for the expulsion of certain settled groups in the UK. Political discourse has become increasingly heated, yet no one is willing to address the underlying reality: with a birth rate of approximately 1.4, a stagnating or shrinking working-age population, and chronic staff shortages in the NHS and social care, a significant reduction in immigration will only lead to a shrinking tax base, slower economic growth, and greater difficulty in maintaining public services.

The iron law of the UK’s demographic structure is simple: natural growth no longer contributes significantly to population increases, and the expansion of the overall population and workforce largely depends on immigration. Current economic growth and fiscal revenue similarly rely, in part, on the work, taxes, and consumption of new immigrants. The OBR’s projections are based on earlier assumptions of relatively high net migration, which have now diverged from the latest sharply declining data. Without a substantial influx of new immigrants, the fiscal space outlined in the budget will evaporate; conversely, if there are large numbers of new immigrants, it will contradict the government’s current political objectives.

If the government continues to implement a stringent immigration reduction plan, maintaining net migration at 340,000 will be nearly impossible. At that point, a fiscal gap will inevitably emerge, forcing the government to make difficult choices between raising taxes, cutting spending, or increasing borrowing. This is a contradiction that will reach its limits sooner or later.

Immigration is not a panacea, but in an aging society, it is a critical variable for sustaining the economy and public finances. The issue is not whether immigration numbers should decrease, but whether the UK is willing to face the truth: fewer immigrants mean accepting reduced fiscal capacity and slower growth; better public services cannot be achieved while simultaneously pursuing isolationist policies and expecting others to foot the bill.