The question of whether the United Kingdom should rejoin the European Union has long been considered a political taboo, yet public sentiment is gradually eroding this invisible red line. According to the latest DeltaPoll survey, if a referendum were held today, 58% of British voters would support rejoining the EU. This result is not an isolated finding; it aligns with a long-term trend tracked by multiple organizations, indicating that support for rejoining has shifted from a controversial stance to one that commands a stable majority.
Assuming voter sentiments remain unchanged and only considering demographic shifts, the trajectory becomes quite clear. The first driving force is demographic turnover. The older generation, which tends to support Brexit, is naturally exiting the electoral register, while a new generation, which has grown up post-Brexit and views international cooperation as the norm, is continuously entering the electorate. Current research estimates that, solely due to generational replacement, support for rejoining the EU rises by approximately 0.65 percentage points each year. This is not the result of political mobilization but rather the passage of time itself.
The second driving force comes from newly naturalized citizens. Whether they are European residents with settled status who will eventually become British citizens or other long-term residents who will attain citizenship, they generally hold a more positive attitude towards the EU than the average British citizen. Even under conservative assumptions, this demographic could contribute an additional 0.1 percentage points to the support for rejoining each year. While the impact may seem limited in isolation, the consistent direction of this trend, compounded over time, is significant.
Combining these two structural factors, the ‘natural rate of increase’ for support to rejoin the EU is approximately 0.75 percentage points per year. At this pace, starting from the current level of about 58%, support for rejoining is projected to reach 60% around 2028, a direct outcome of demographic and electoral structure projections. As for surpassing two-thirds (approximately 66.7%), this is expected to occur around 2037, a clear timeline for the medium to long term.
It is important to emphasize that the above projections deliberately exclude any external shocks and merely describe what would happen ‘if nothing changes.’ However, the real world does not operate in a vacuum. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered Europe’s understanding of security, energy, and institutional cooperation. The EU’s collective action capabilities in sanctions coordination, energy policy, and military production have been repeatedly demonstrated, while the UK increasingly appears as an outsider, gradually reshaping voters’ perceptions of the costs of Brexit.
Everyday frictions are also accumulating. Non-tariff barriers and regulatory divergences continue to emerge, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the reapplication of rules of origin, plant and animal quarantine, food safety inspections, and the lack of mutual recognition for industrial and medical product certifications and standards. These obstacles may not appear on tariff schedules, but they directly affect business costs, investment decisions, and employment patterns.
Moreover, a demonstration effect is approaching reality. Iceland is set to hold a referendum next year on whether to join the EU, and if passed, it will illustrate that remaining outside the EU is not the only viable or necessarily successful option. Once such a demonstration effect occurs, its psychological impact on British society often far exceeds the significance of the institutional details themselves.
Therefore, what truly deserves attention is not whether support for rejoining the EU will continue to rise, but whether the political system will choose to ignore this structural curve. The current 58% is not an endpoint but a snapshot of an ongoing trend. Demographic turnover provides direction, naturalization offers momentum, and geopolitical factors, non-tariff barriers, and demonstration effects will only accelerate the timeline. The only remaining question is: Is the UK prepared to confront this reality before public opinion completes its transformation?
