Gas prices set to rise: can 7.6p electricity make electric heating cheaper?

Gas heating usually costs less to run than an ordinary electric heater. For some households, however, that calculation is changing. With gas prices expected to rise again in January 2027, customers paying 7.6p per kilowatt-hour for cheaper overnight electricity may find that electric heaters cost less during those hours. Households with home batteries can also save that electricity for daytime use. Switching between electricity at night and gas at other times could reduce heating costs. Whether it works for a particular home depends on the cost of useful heat, the cheaper hours available, the equipment installed and the household’s daily routine.

The main driver of the latest gas price increases is disruption to liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict in the Middle East. Supplies have tightened, leaving European and Asian buyers competing for alternative cargoes. On 3 November, the International Energy Agency reported that the European Union was entering the heating season with its lowest gas stocks since 2013, reducing its buffer against cold weather and supply disruptions. Britain is also exposed to international prices. Because the price cap reflects wholesale costs over a preceding period, increases reach household bills with a delay. A short-term fall in wholesale prices therefore does not immediately bring bills down.

The January price cap has yet to be announced. Ofgem is scheduled to confirm it on 25 November. In a forecast published on 30 September, Cornwall Insight predicted that the average gas unit rate would rise from 7.97p to 9.76p per kilowatt-hour, an increase of around 22 per cent. EDF’s outlook, updated on 5 November, also anticipated higher energy prices in January. We will use the 9.76p forecast for the calculations that follow. Households on tariffs that track the cap would be more directly affected. Those with fixed gas tariffs should check their own unit rate and contract end date before deciding when to change their heating arrangements.

A fair comparison measures the heat that actually reaches the room. Gas boilers lose some energy through their exhaust. Assuming 90 per cent efficiency, gas costing 9.76p per kilowatt-hour produces useful heat at around 10.84p per kilowatt-hour. An ordinary electric heater converts almost all the electricity it consumes into heat inside the room. At an electricity rate of 7.6p, the same amount of useful heat therefore costs around 30 per cent less. Producing 10 kilowatt-hours of heat would cost approximately £1.08 with gas or £0.76 with cheaper electricity. That difference comes from energy prices and appliance efficiency. An ordinary electric heater can deliver it without an expensive upgrade.

Intelligent Octopus Go, or IOG, provides a fixed period of cheaper electricity for the whole home from 23:30 to 05:30. Households with a 7.6p contract can use that rate for electric heaters too. The system sometimes schedules additional discounted smart charging outside those hours, but the timings change frequently, making them difficult to build into a regular heating routine. A more manageable approach is to plan around the guaranteed six-hour overnight period, while checking the daytime rate and contract term. These electric vehicle tariffs have eligibility and equipment requirements. Existing customers can compare costs straight away; other households need to establish whether they qualify.

Households that already need heating overnight or early in the morning could use electric heaters during those six hours and switch back to gas at other times. This is particularly relevant to people who already have central heating and simply want to reduce running costs. The cheaper period covers only a quarter of the day, however, and the actual saving depends on how much heating is needed during it. If one-third of the day’s useful heat comes from electricity that costs around 30 per cent less, the daily heating energy cost would fall by approximately 10 per cent. Daily routines, insulation and overnight temperature requirements all affect that proportion.

Households with home batteries can charge overnight and supply electric heaters during the day, extending their use of cheaper electricity. Assuming a round-trip charging and discharging efficiency of 90 per cent, electricity bought at 7.6p would cost around 8.44p per kilowatt-hour delivered to the heater. That remains below the gas heating cost in our example. This calculation includes the assumed energy losses, although battery wear also matters. If the battery already supplies daytime appliances, adding an electric heater could empty it earlier and leave those appliances drawing more expensive electricity from the grid. Battery use needs to be considered across the whole household.

How long a battery lasts depends on its usable capacity and the heater’s actual consumption. A battery with 5 kilowatt-hours available could theoretically power a heater running continuously at 2 kilowatts for around 2.5 hours. Other appliances would shorten that time, while a thermostat cycling the heater on and off could extend it. The inverter also has an output limit. Several heaters running together may require additional electricity from the grid. A battery can therefore help extend cheaper heating into particular hours and rooms. Buying one specifically for heating requires a separate calculation of installation costs and annual savings.

The area being heated also affects the bill. Someone working alone in a study for two hours might spend less using an electric heater than running central heating across several rooms. Equally, effective zoning and thermostatic controls can reduce central heating in unoccupied areas. Comparisons should cover similar temperatures, times and spaces to establish whether savings come from cheaper energy or simply heating less of the home. Households can review their existing schedules and room controls before buying another heater. Reducing unnecessary heat in unused rooms lowers energy consumption with either system, helping both gas and electric heating cost less.

When choosing an electric heater, price and appearance can easily attract the most attention. Oil-filled radiators, fan heaters and ceramic heaters differ in how quickly they warm a room, their noise and how the heat feels. They are all resistance heaters, however, with broadly similar conversion of electricity into heat. Useful features include reliable thermostats, convenient timers and controls suited to the room. Outside the cheaper hours, the electricity rate becomes a much larger cost factor. At an assumed daytime rate of 35p, useful heat would also cost close to 35p per kilowatt-hour, far above the gas cost in our example. Even an advanced ordinary electric heater cannot overcome that price gap through its design.

Heat pumps offer a greater efficiency advantage because they move heat from outdoors. In suitable conditions, each kilowatt-hour of electricity can deliver around 3 to 4 kilowatt-hours of heat. At a performance factor of 3, electricity costing 7.6p produces useful heat for just 2.53p per kilowatt-hour. Even electricity at 30p would produce heat for around 10p. Actual performance depends on outdoor temperatures, heating water temperatures and system design. Installing a heat pump is a larger decision that needs to account for year-round demand and long-term performance. As gas becomes more expensive, the performance a heat pump needs to match gas running costs falls, strengthening the financial case for switching.

Higher gas prices make overnight electric heating, daytime gas heating, batteries and heat pumps worth examining. Access to those choices is uneven. Cheaper electricity tariffs have eligibility requirements, batteries and heat pumps need money, space and installation arrangements, and tenants may have little control over changes. Government efforts to encourage cheaper heating also need to address those barriers. Otherwise, households least able to upgrade could remain exposed to higher costs. For individual households, the practical starting point is their own electricity rate, gas rate and daily schedule. Would higher gas prices in January persuade you to use electricity at night and gas during the day, or to heat your home using a battery? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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