For a long time, developing countries have been synonymous with pollution: coal smoke, diesel fumes, frequent power outages, and the incessant noise of generators. However, this reality is changing. It is the developed nations that are truly shackled by the old systems. Refineries, gas pipelines, and coal-fired power plants are all remnants of 20th-century designs, burdened by expensive and rigid sunk costs that make transitions slow and costly. In contrast, many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America lack comprehensive fossil fuel infrastructure and do not carry the burden of recouping investments. They can leapfrog outdated technologies and move directly to a clean energy system centered on solar, wind, batteries, and smart grids. Here, energy transition is not idealism but the most cost-effective and rapid choice available.
Pakistan serves as a striking example. With soaring electricity prices and frequent blackouts, the market has found its own solution. In the past two years, the import of solar panels has surged, with capacity measured in tens of gigawatts, and the pace of new installations has at times exceeded that of the entire African continent. This is not driven by government subsidies but by businesses and households calculating the costs: self-generated power is cheaper and more reliable than purchasing from the grid. As a result, solar energy’s share in the electricity mix has skyrocketed, driving down the marginal price during the day to extremely low levels. More importantly, this path is naturally compatible with electric vehicles and heat pumps. When rooftops can generate electricity, electric vehicles become mobile batteries, and heat pumps can amplify every kilowatt of electricity into three to four kilowatts of heating or cooling. In such a system, laying expensive gas pipelines merely locks capital into a less efficient and riskier dead end.
Argentina’s transition illustrates that even resource-rich countries need not be held captive by their resources. Through straightforward renewable energy auctions and long-term contracts, wind and solar power have rapidly become key sources of electricity, supporting nearly half of the demand during midday and peak periods. This not only reduces price volatility but also enhances energy security and minimizes foreign exchange outflows. As electricity becomes progressively cleaner, the electrification of transportation and heating becomes a natural progression: electric vehicles are no longer constrained by imported oil prices, and heat pumps prove to be significantly more cost-effective than gas water heaters over their entire lifecycle. The energy system is shifting from ‘continuously burning fuel’ to ‘installing equipment once and using electricity long-term.’
Kenya showcases an even more radical path. With geothermal, hydropower, and wind energy as its backbone, clean energy now constitutes an absolute majority of its electricity generation. This means that new electricity demand need not be accompanied by new emissions, allowing for the simultaneous expansion of the grid and carbon reduction. This is crucial for a country still working to improve electricity access. When the foundational power supply is already clean, promoting electric vehicles and heat pumps is easier than in developed countries, as there are no old systems to maintain, no gas pipelines to depreciate, and no vested interests to appease.
The common thread among these countries is clear: transition is driven not by sentiment but by cost curves. Solar, wind, and battery technologies continue to decline in price, while the grid serves as the most universal and scalable infrastructure. Electric vehicles and heat pumps extend the value of electricity to transportation and climate control. Under these conditions, any rational actor would not choose to build a new gas system to accomplish tasks that could be performed more efficiently by electricity. This is not just high-carbon; it is also economically unwise.
If this trend continues, the scene a decade from now may be quite ironic. You might enter a country still labeled as ‘developing’ today, only to be greeted by clean air, rooftops adorned with solar panels, quiet electric vehicles gliding through the streets without emissions, and buildings heated and cooled by the grid. In contrast, those countries still shackled by oil and gas assets and politics, desperately prolonging the life of old pipelines, may resemble today’s underdeveloped regions. Energy transition has never been about who shouts the loudest first; it is about who is willing to let go of the past the earliest. As the world has already turned the corner, the slowest will ultimately find themselves trapped in their own history.
