nRecent national polls indicate that Reform UK is now leading the Labour Party in terms of support. The latest Ipsos survey shows Reform UK with a 34% approval rating, leading by approximately nine percentage points. Voter disillusionment with the traditional two major parties’ long-standing inability to reform has allowed Farage to rise as an ‘anti-establishment’ figure. However, his proposals do not aim to reshape the UK but to dismantle it. Should Reform UK truly come to power, the country could face not only economic turmoil but also the collapse of its foundational structures.n
nFarage has publicly praised former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s ‘mini-budget’ of 2022, calling it ‘the best Conservative budget since 1986.’ This statement was widely criticized at the time. The budget led to market panic, a sharp drop in the pound, soaring bond yields, and ultimately forced Truss to resign. This history reveals Farage’s economic perspective: he advocates for unfettered tax cuts and market liberalization, even though such approaches have been proven to undermine confidence. Now, he is campaigning for power with similar slogans, and the risks are evident.n
nMore destructive is his advocacy for the UK to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). This is not merely a diplomatic or legal stance but could be the catalyst for the disintegration of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The Belfast Good Friday Agreement, which is central to Northern Ireland’s peace, is underpinned by the ECHR. Withdrawal would destabilize the agreement’s legal foundation, potentially reigniting local conflicts. Scotland has already expressed a desire to remain within the human rights framework and the EU. If London proceeds unilaterally, calls for independence will inevitably grow louder. The UK’s unity could first fracture in Northern Ireland, then spread to Scotland, ultimately tearing the nation apart.n
nExiting the ECHR would also bring UK judicial and economic cooperation with the EU and the European Free Trade Association to a near standstill. According to the terms of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement, if the UK ceases to adhere to the human rights convention, the EU could terminate judicial cooperation, policing collaboration, and data sharing. This would increase cross-border trade risks, double legal costs, and disrupt logistics and supply chain operations. Businesses would face higher insurance and contract risks, leading to increased import costs. Ultimately, ordinary households would suffer, as inflationary pressures would become harder to alleviate. The UK would become isolated within the European economic system, with rising prices and declining investment confidence occurring simultaneously.n
nIn terms of economic policy, many of Reform UK’s proposals have been criticized by the Independent Fiscal Studies (IFS) as ‘unfunded commitments.’ Farage claims he will significantly cut taxes, reduce ‘wasteful’ spending, limit legal immigration, and restructure the central bank system, yet he has not explained the source of funding. Such baseless promises are likely to trigger market panic. If the government ultimately relies on borrowing to fill the gap, its credibility will inevitably decline. Bond yields would rise, currency devaluation would occur, and inflation would worsen, replaying the crisis of the Truss era. It seems Farage has not learned from the lessons of the mini-budget.n
nEqually dangerous is Reform UK’s regression in energy and infrastructure. Farage advocates abolishing the net-zero emissions target and halting the HS2 high-speed rail project, even if the latter is near completion. This means abandoning long-term growth and industrial modernization. Renewable energy and infrastructure investment are key engines for job creation and regional development, yet they have become casualties of political slogans. Investors, faced with policy reversals, will inevitably withdraw and wait. Since Brexit, the UK’s potential GDP has already fallen by about four percentage points. If compounded by such misguided policies, the economic outlook will become even bleaker.n
nReform UK’s immigration policy exposes its contradictions. They claim to ‘expel illegal immigrants’ and ‘tighten legal immigration,’ yet overlook the UK’s heavy reliance on overseas personnel in healthcare, research, and higher education. Nearly one-fifth of NHS staff are foreign nationals, and tuition fees from international students are crucial for university operations. If Reform UK governs and tightens entry comprehensively, healthcare and education will inevitably face staffing crises, and local economies will suffer a chain reaction. The result will be that legal immigrants are wrongly targeted, while the issue of illegal immigration remains unresolved.n
nOverall, Farage’s political project is neither pragmatic nor stable. While he uses ‘taking back control’ as a slogan, in reality, he is promoting a self-dismantling process from institutions, the economy, to national structure. Exiting the ECHR could lead to the disintegration of the United Kingdom, unfunded policies would trigger fiscal and inflation crises, reversing energy transition and infrastructure investment would weaken productivity, and tightening immigration would destroy public services. True national sovereignty lies not in building walls but in maintaining an open, stable, and credible system. If Farage’s path becomes reality, the UK will embark on a self-destructive journey amid the drumbeats of populism.n
