Recent declassified documents reviewed by the Financial Times reveal that in the 1990s, the UK Treasury explicitly judged that the Elizabeth Line “would never be built.” The reasons cited are all too familiar: exorbitant costs, overestimated demand, and the impossibility of private funding bearing the risks. Thirty years later, not only has this railway been completed, but it has also quickly become one of London\u2019s busiest transport arteries. This stark contrast is not merely a single misjudgment but a reflection of systemic thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Elizabeth Line is not an isolated case. The planning history of the M25 motorway is equally revealing. At the time, there was a serious official viewpoint that the entire orbital motorway around London only required dual carriageways, based on the assumption that car growth would slow, cross-traffic would be limited, and that roads themselves would not create new demand. These assumptions seemed prudent and even rational at the time, yet they overlooked structural changes such as urban expansion, longer commuting distances, and the rapid growth of logistics activities. Today, the M25 is chronically congested, serving as the best counter-evidence to the underestimated demand of that era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The same logic of “better to underestimate than to err” has repeatedly appeared in the history of UK infrastructure. The Channel Tunnel faced fierce criticism during its conception and promotion phases, labeled as a financial black hole, with opponents questioning its ability to break even and fearing the political repercussions of failure. Initially, the tunnel did indeed face financial difficulties, but as freight demand increased, air travel became restricted, and supply chains were restructured, its strategic value far exceeded any early models could have predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Heathrow’s Terminal 5 reveals another misjudgment. Many at the time believed that air travel growth was unsustainable, predicting that the new terminal would remain underutilized and exacerbate environmental pressures. In reality, the terminal opened at full capacity, and the UK has long been constrained by insufficient airport capacity, hampering economic growth and international connectivity. The issue has never been about building too much, but rather about building too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The stories of the Overground and Jubilee Line further illustrate the blind spots of traditional fiscal assessments. The former was seen as a fragmented and marginal railway network prior to its overhaul, with returns difficult to quantify and lacking a grand narrative, thus long overlooked as a priority project. However, after service improvements and system integration, ridership surged, reshaping commuting patterns and community structures. The latter faced criticism when extended to Canary Wharf as a gamble on an unproven financial district, yet it was precisely because of the railway’s arrival that the area was able to take shape. Urban development often requires infrastructure to precede demand, rather than waiting for it to prove itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The book “Why Westminster Works and Why It Doesn\u2019t” provides a crucial institutional explanation for this series of phenomena. It points out that the UK’s governance system is highly centralized around the Treasury, which wields significant horizontal influence; nearly all large, cross-departmental, long-term policies must pass through its scrutiny. This system operates effectively in avoiding immediate errors and maintaining procedural order, but it simultaneously creates a structural bias: it prioritizes risks that can be immediately held accountable while struggling to address dispersed, delayed, and difficult-to-attribute long-term costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The book does not blame officials for incompetence; on the contrary, it describes a system dominated by highly educated and analytically capable bureaucrats. The issue lies not in their irrationality but in the system encouraging them to use models, procedures, and audit standards to avoid mistakes rather than to take on the risks that require political judgment across generations and are fraught with uncertainty. In such an environment, “doing nothing” is often safer than “doing something wrong,” while the costs of delay are rarely formally calculated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This encapsulates the true meaning of “better to do nothing than to do wrong.” It is not laziness or conspiracy, but rather a highly rational yet systematically underestimation of the future. However, the history of infrastructure repeatedly demonstrates that what is truly expensive is not erroneous investments but prolonged hesitation. When roads, railways, and airports are finally forced to be built, the costs are already higher, and the options are fewer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If the UK genuinely wishes to break this cycle, the reform must extend beyond a single railway or motorway; it must encompass the entire culture of public investment. Infrastructure assessments need to incorporate the costs of inaction, systemic effects, and the long-term demand they induce into their core considerations, allowing “doing versus not doing” to be measured on the same timescale. Otherwise, “better to do nothing” will remain the safest choice, but it will also continue to be the UK’s most costly habit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The UK Treasury’s infrastructure assessments often underestimate future demand, leading to delays and higher costs. Reforming the public investment culture is essential to avoid repeating these mistakes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-infrastructure"],"yoast_head":"\n